Q4 2024 Macro Outlook & Investment Strategy

This month we discuss the volatile start to 2025, the flurry of activity following Donald Trump’s re-inauguration, DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough, and Europe’s economic travails.

As markets enter 2025, key economic, technological and political trends are poised to determine the challenges and opportunities for investors. In this article, our research team share their top 10 themes set to shape markets in the year ahead and identify the assets best positioned to capitalise on these opportunities.

Uncertainty reigns but global GDP will most likely continue to grow at a decent clip in 2025, with the US outperforming other DMs thanks to tech innovation, resilient consumer spending, pro-cyclical fiscal policy, and a regulatory rollback under President Trump. His agenda, particularly on trade, brings risks to the US economy too of course. But Europe and China have more to fear given their weaker economic fundamentals, greater trade openness, and Trump’s stated foreign policy priorities in Europe and Asia. Europe seems particularly vulnerable as it faces political instability at home, rising indebtedness (without the dollar), and proximity to the war in Ukraine. Inflation stickiness looms large, and central banks have recently pushed back on dovish market expectations for 2025. Against this backdrop, stretched valuations in equities and tight credit spreads leave little room for error. Volatility seems inevitable.