Q1 2024 Macro Outlook & Investment Strategy
High rates and inflation are likely to drive slower global growth this year, while China’s disappointing recovery from COVID continues to weigh on trade; inflation should continue to fall, but the trajectory is uncertain given the stickiness of services inflation and the potential for geopolitics to disrupt the glidepath to a soft landing; multiples, meanwhile, have expanded and spreads have narrowed, presenting little room to absorb negative news; diversification and discipline are key.