Financial Capital

Steady, if not speedy, disinflation has allowed monetary easing to begin in Europe, and, latterly, in the US, as well as in many large emerging markets. As a base case, we expect this process to continue. But upside surprises for inflation and rates are a distinct possibility. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine perpetually threaten to disrupt energy and food supplies; China has opened the floodgates to more policy stimulus; and the US election may well carry Donald Trump back into office on the promise of more tax cuts and trade protectionism. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a goldilocks ‘soft landing’ scenario for the global economy, reflected in razor-thin credit spreads and toppy equity multiples on cycle-high earnings. Downside risks for traditional asset prices are elevated, with gold and alternatives obvious redoubts for investors. But the rosy market consensus may yet prove right.

In this article, we explore the prevalent trends across private markets in 2024 and highlights future areas of growth and opportunity.

This month, we discuss the ramifications of the long-awaited first US interest rate cut, as well as stimulus in China.

This month, we discuss the global equity sell-off and the subsequent recovery, the unwinding of Yen carry trades, the outlook for US interest rates, and our duration posture.

In this article, we explore some historical examples of the types of companies that have benefited from new disruptive technologies – notably Coca-Cola’s transformation as a result of refrigeration – and draw some conclusions about the potential impact of AI, highlighting some of the companies set to be potential winners.

This month, we discuss the rotation out of Big Tech and into other sectors, the outlook for US rates, and the fast-moving US election.

Resilient global growth data mask divergent fortunes among major economies: the US and some emerging markets are growing strongly while most other developed markets are at a crawl. Still, global inflation is falling and multiple policy rate cuts are expected in the coming months. Upside inflation surprises cannot be ruled out, notably given the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. But there is a clear, if narrow, path to a global economic soft landing. That markets have fully priced in this optimistic outcome nonetheless suggests that risks are skewed to the downside. Bonds and gold are obvious places to take shelter, while pockets of value in equities can also be found.